France Egging on the 3rd War for Oil or Something Else?

Recently France has been putting up the ante in terms of their dealings in the Middle East. Though they really don't have much in terms of military power, their overzealous stance on diplomacy could very well take us into the 3rd War in the Middle East. Considering that the Americans and their British Allies are stretched thin with their assets spread out in both Afghanistan and Iraq, the French thinks they can make their mark on their world with their strongly provocative wording by their foreign minister:

On Sunday Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said: "We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war."

Mr Kouchner said negotiations with Iran should continue "right to the end", but that an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose "a real danger for the whole world".

Considering the fact that negotiations over Iran's nuclear ambitions are still underway, it seems rather premature for the French to even make such bold claims. Perhaps there is an underlying vested interest on the part of the France that is making it take such an outlandish statement?

First, the history between the two nations have been mixed at best, with France snubbing Iran a few times back in the 70-80s: first by withholding nuclear resources in a joint consortium between France, Iran, and other European nations; and once again when France's siding with Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war, supplying Saddam with Mirages and other fighters (around $5.5 Billion dollars of military hardware). To me this seems that France is just flexing their muscles again to snub over Iran. The problem this time is that Iran is controlled by a semi-fanatical political leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and a fully crazed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to deal with. Considering that the Americans are already stretched to the brink (their army is recruiting category IV recruits [basically those between 16th and 30th% on their aptitude test, which is far easier than even the GED], the French are just asking for trouble.

Second, the trade between the two nations is slightly skewed: France is the 6th biggest trading partner to Iran, which is mostly based on automobiles (55% of France exports to Iran are cars) and this makes up roughly 6.25% of all Iran's imports. On the other hand Iran is only the 27th customer to France, with the vast majority of it being crude oil, and even then it only makes a minor 3% of France's petroleum imports. So basically from an economic standpoint France's pressures on Iran has a far larger reach than vice versa. France is basically bullying its small trading partner, something that would most likely blow up in the French's faces, since this will cause Iran to fall right into the arms of China and Russia, which could more than provide for the automobile and aerospace needs of Iran.

Third, the military standpoints of France versus Iran. France is a technically advanced 1st world country, with some of the best aerospace engineers and aircraft in the world. Their diplomatic contacts with NATO will undoubtedly result in stringing in other nations such as the United States and Britain into battle. Iran's military hardware is mostly 1970s - early 1980s weaponary, bought before their last Shah was ousted, consisting mainly of antiquated F-14s and 3 Kilo Submarines (not enough to prevent incursions). Instead the main power of the Iran military lies with its dedicated and fanatical armed forces, which number in the 500,000+. Considering Iran was able to fight Saddam's vastly superior forces (which was funded by USA, France, and other first world nations), I believe that a battle of attrition which demoralizes the "invading" forces will be the stance that the Iranians will take. The use of civilians as bullet shields against bombing runs by air strikes will undoubtedly change the favor of Westernized nations, as it has in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In the end, I believe the French are all talk. Unless actual intervention by the Americans and British takes place, an armed conflict is highly unlikely, as it will definitely result in deteriorating public views back home for the French. Against a highly motivated and fanatical country like Iran, it is very difficult to take an offensive stance.

Source: (BBC News)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6998602.stm