First off a review of the state of the world:
- Middle East:
USA is still trying to control the Middle East under its pretext of hunting down "terrorists" who had been responsible for 9/11. What originally started as a retaliatory strike against the Al Qaeda terrorist organization and their Taliban (Afghan) allies has turned into an all out land/oil grab.
Using the pretext that Iraq under Saddam Hussein controlled "weapons of mass destruction", the US government under the command of its most coercive and inept administrations to date has now plunged the entire Middle East region into a state of chaos. Ever since the illegal (not approved by UN) US/UK coalition (axis) invasion of Iraq, which took place over skanty & falsified evidence created by the Bush administration. Things have not been getting better in Iraq, in fact things have gotten worse. The conflict (caused by the axis) has claimed as of June 2006: 654,965 (range of 392,979–942,636) total excess deaths! This number accounts 2.5% of Iraq's population; basically what is currently still undergoing in Iraq is a prolonged genocide of Arabs.
So just what did the US/UK axis gain from this invasion? Body bags and billions in debt... to corporations like Haliburton and PMC (private military contractors). But not only this, the invasion (which ended with its ousting/murdering of Saddam Hussein) has created a sort of power vacuum in the Middle East, not only making Iraq into the "new" breeding ground of terrorists, but also pushing their closer relations to the "border-lining" fanatical Islamic state of Iran. Great Job Bush, you are one of the "main causes" of the America debt to the Chinese and Japanese... (hence my 2nd point)
Middle East Assessment: Extremely Volatile, I wouldn't want to live here. - Far East:
The Far East has been an area with numerous problems since the end of the 19th (1800s) to 20th Centuries (Chinese Revolution, Japanese Imperialism). But one of the most important in setting the stage of that region of the world is World War II and its aftermath; the rise of Democracy and Communism. After the defeat of the Japanese at the end of WWII a huge vacuum was created in the countries that it "controlled" in the duration of the war. In particular China, Korea, and to a lesser extent Vietnam and other Southeast Asia countries. This power vacuum allowed the grass roots organizations of Communism to actually gain power (basically the creation of the Cold War), partially in Korea and completely in China and Vietnam (after Vietnam War).- The civil war in China which resulted in the Communists taking power and ousting the (Autocratic-Socialist) KMT (Kuomintang) to Taiwan has created the instance of cross strait instability with concern to Taiwan's independence.
- The split between Communist and Autocratic-Democrats Koreas cumulated to the Korean War which basically ended with a draw and cease fire. It wasn't until the last 10-20 years that sentiments regarding reunification have increased
- The Vietnam War ends with Communists ousting the Democractic but Corrupt Regime in the South (however it is noted that the South Vietnamese government stood like a puppet government to the United States)
In addition to the rise of communism in the area, a strong Anti-Japanese sentiment (shared by all nations in the region) exists to this day. A reason why the growth of Japanese military (they call it self-defense force), which is currently the 4-5th most in the world a cause for concern. I wonder just how and where are they spending the 42-43+ billion USD a year, especially when they say they are a "pacifist" state. It is because of this, that their "arms race" with China is only going to further aggravate the tensions in the region.
The recent cries for independence by President Chen Shui Bian of Taiwan and the increase of Anti-Sino sentiments in Taiwan can be associated to the roots by which Taiwan was created.
The current "deactivation" of North Korea's reactors can be seen as a good sign, we will see just how long that lasts.
Far East Assessment: Moderate, excellent chances of growth and this is "THE" place to earn fast money right now, that is until the nukes starts to fly. - Europe:
Europe for most of modern history has been a huge battle ground between the many races, religions, and ideologies. It has been the source of 2 World Wars in the past 100 years and dozens of smaller conflicts. However with the pacification of Nazism, decline of Communism in Russia, and the ,and the growth of cooperation between the member states of the European Union (E.U.), the region has become one of the world's strongest economic and military powers (offset by United States). However the overwhelming power of a handful of member states such as Britain, France, Germany, and Italy compared to its ex-Eastern Bloc counterparts makes the growing internal problems becoming full blown economic and military situations a possibility.
Europe Assessment: Low, the existence of the majority of the World's First World countries in the region more than speaks to the power of the Europeans. That is assuming they can contain their second class members (citizens) and keep them in line. - Southeast Asia & Indian Subcontinent:
After the era of colonialism died at the end of WWII, the new Democracies have begun to flex their muscles regionally. The two primary players in this region are Pakistan and India. Both of these nations are moderately equipped and with access to nuclear arsenal. Considering their past rivalry, as well as their proximity to Afghanistan (the roots of the Taliban and Al Qaeda), it is definitely a flashpoint region.
Also having some of the most populous Islamic countries, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan; the growth of Fundamentalist Islam and terrorism in the area is a definite cause for concern. In particular the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is a traditional stronghold/haven for terrorists as the region is not completely under control by their respective countries.
Southeast Asia Assessment: Moderate High, unless control of the terrorists in the region is contained by Afghanistan and Pakistan, the region will continue to be a regional flashpoint. And considering how badly Pervez Musharraf gets pressured, we could well see the birth of yet another fundamentalist state in the region. - North & South America:
The new world countries have in general been more docile than the countries in Europe, Africa, and Asia. Being separated/isolated by ocean from all the "problems" plaguing the rest of world. With the world's premier military, economy, and democracies the United States in the Americas, one would have thought the region would be the most democratic and "stable" in the world. However this is definitely not the case. With resurgence of Socialism and Chinese like Dengism ("earn money at any cost") taking hold of South America and its inroads in Canada and the United States through left winged parties such NDP & Communist Party in Canada and the Socialist Party in United States comes to mind.
Due to the relative success of Dengism in the (Socialist-Capitalist) state of China, the idea has spread like wild fire to the Americas, the prime examples of Democracies adopting this style of approach are Evo Morales's Bolivia and Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. Because of the growth of the far left and the growing anti-American sentiments, it wouldn't surprise me if the Americans do something foolish like stage a coup or assassination in those states, like they have tried unsuccessfully in Cuba, Fidel Castro and successfully in South Vietnam before the Vietnam War on Ngo Dinh Diem.
With Fidel Castro incapacitated and his brother Raul running shop in Cuba, it is likely that the Americans will try to oust the Communists out of Cuba
Americas Assessment: Moderate Low, the primary cause for concern in the Americas is the ongoing conflicts of ideologies, will the Americans coerce yet another win for Democracy or will the people win to fight another day? - Australia & New Guinea:
Nothing much ever happens in Australia and New Guinea. Both of these countries are extremely well off and have had relatively peaceful, other than to their aboriginals, who are put into reserves (much like in Canada and United States). So unless the "combined might of the Aussie Aboriginals decides to send their armies out to take back what's theres, I highly suspect that chances of instabilities in the region is extremely low.
Australia & New Guinea Assessment: Extremely Low, as I have stated earlier, nothing happens in Aussieland and I highly doubt anything ever will. - Africa:
The rise of fundamentalist Islam in states such as Sudan and genocides (Sierra Leone, Uganda, and Rwanda) in the region is a definite cause for concern. However due to the lack of use to the First World countries, the area gets far fewer press coverage than Iraq and the Far East. It would seem that the only countries that have vested interest in the region is either France (with their colonial links) and China (which wants their resources and to sell them "stuff"). Other than that it seems, yet again, Africa gets the ass end of the deal in our world. Considering that Sudan is becoming yet another Islamic terrorist stronghold, it truly makes me wonder why the United States isn't doing more to prevent them in that region, maybe they are weighing the advantages (minor access to resources) and disadvantages (many conflicts due to religion and land ownership), and sees Africa as a lost cause.
In addition to the constant warfare and conflict that occurs in Africa, the weak economies of a great deal of its nations makes it susceptible to fluctuations
Africa Assessment: Volatile, but with a large chance of growing worse if more international attention (in particular from first world countries like United States) isn't setting the region into its agenda.
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